The summer of 2023 in Switzerland starts with pleasant temperatures. The meteorologist explains what to expect from the weather in the coming months.
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- Summer starts today.
- June, July and August are hotter than usual.
- However, long-term forecasts should be treated with caution and should not be used for vacation planning.
At least May 2023 wasn’t as rainy as it felt: Despite several rainy days in the first half of the month, precipitation totals in many places were at or below the 1991 range.
Still: Spring was rainy and cold.
But it’s over now. In a meteorological sense, summer officially begins on June 1st. The only question is: What does he bring to Switzerland?
Of course, there is no sure way to predict whether it will fall on water or whether heat waves will dry out the country. But meteorologists already know a little: thanks to seasonal long-range forecasts. These should not be confused with normal weather forecasts for the coming days – and are not reliable. But a certain trend can definitely be determined.
Summer is very hot, but it is nothing special
“In seasonal forecasts, possible weather developments in the coming months are simulated in ensembles. In each case it is derived how likely it is that a season will be too hot or cold or too wet or too dry, compared to the climatic average”, explained Federal Office for Meteorology and Climate (MeteoSwiss).
Summer starts today Weiss “Tages-Anzeiger”, “Average temperatures will be above the long-term climate average” in Central Europe. In other words: a cold summer is not possible. It is more likely to be hotter than usual.
Meteorologist Roger Perret of the weather service MeteoNews doesn’t believe in such long-term forecasts. In an interview with Blue News, he says: “Basically, long-term forecasts are trends that cannot be used to make any definitive statements. Additionally, trends are not uniform in most cases.
“In the long-term forecasts, the summer is calculated to be very hot compared to the long-term average. But that is nothing special: in recent years, all seasons have actually been very warm, with few exceptions. » Whether the summer will be half a degree or more warmer, or even two degrees, is still uncertain. Unknown: “But the average temperature varies within this range.”
What do you think summer will be like?
Big variation in models
MeteoSwiss also qualifies that “the quality and applicability of long-term forecasts for Switzerland are still limited to specific, professional applications.” In a long-range forecast, Perrett explains, complex physical equations are used to simulate what has already been calculated in a normal weather forecast. “It gets completely confusing at some point, which is why it’s hard to make a definitive statement.”
Computational models reach their limits, especially when it comes to long-term rainfall forecasts. The “Tages-Anzeiger” sees no “signs of a pronounced drought” or “a rainy summer with large-scale flooding as in 2021”.
Roger Perrett thinks the forecast for average rainfall in the summer of 2023 is too bold. “Predicting is really difficult. The variability in the models is very large. Some predict many thunderstorms, while others predict long dry periods. »
In any case, vacations should not be planned based on long-term forecasts. In some places and at times the weather is very unpredictable for long periods of time. Berret’s conclusion: “The summer will be very hot compared to the long-term average, but that’s normal in a global warming era. Everything else will show.”
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