The number of armed conflicts has never been higher than it is today. In more than 130 conflicts around the world, people let their arms speak for themselves. How do wars come to a definitive end, not just a pause?
Armed conflicts have patterns, however unpredictable they may seem. They never go as planned, and they never end in success. The promise of a short war and quick victory has been the norm for most of the 20th century. Easily given, rarely retrieved.
Peace researcher Sarah Helmüller from the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich says: “When a war breaks out, negotiations or informal discussions are always carried out immediately. This is mainly done to see where the opponent is.
The first month is crucial
Nevertheless, the first month is the best time to negotiate the silencing of guns. Parties test how serious the enemy is. If this moment is missed, conflicts often last for a very long time. On average, it takes four years for a new window to open for negotiations.
“There is also a lack of insight into the Ukraine-Russia conflict that negotiations are productive. It is often said that what they want in Ukraine is victory, not peace. The same is true in Russia.”
According to peace analyst Helmüller, both Russia and Ukraine want military victory, not peace.
Reuters/Viacheslav Ratynskyi 813.08.2024)
The longer conflicts last, the less likely they are to end in a peace agreement. Instead, they freeze. According to Helmüller, research shows: “Conflicts can never be resolved militarily. Unless you have a political roof for this peace house, it will not be resolved.”
Asymmetric disputes—conflicts between parties of disproportionate size, strength, or power—often drag on for a very long time. Being the supposedly stronger party in a conflict cannot win militarily, but it takes time and life to admit that.
“The longer a war lasts, the more difficult it is to get people to settle through negotiations because there are so many victims,” says Laurent Kotzel, director of the Swiss peace foundation Swisspeace. Did friends, fathers, brothers, children, sisters, mothers die for a reconciliation?
A classic example of asymmetric conflict is the Vietnam War. The war in Ukraine and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict also belong to this group. The large number of victims makes it even more difficult for politicians to justify concessions to their own people. (Image: Los Angeles National Cemetery)
Reuters/Lucy Nicholson (Simplify/11.11.2020)
“On the other hand, there can be so-called battle fatigue, which is why you find your way to the negotiating table,” says Kotzel.
Peace research shows that exclusion often leads to more violence in the long run.
The road to peace is long and often becomes especially bloody before negotiations. Conflicting parties exert their power. Nevertheless: the path to lasting peace always leads through negotiations, that is, negotiations between all parties to the conflict, even the extreme ones.
“Peace research shows that exclusion leads to more violence in the long run.” Helmuller says that not negotiating with terrorists will not lead to greater security in the long run.
Peace should bring more to all than war
It can be very bitter for victims, for those who have lost children, for partners, for friends, for neighbors. A good peace does not make a winner. The point is to bring peace to all parties rather than war. Once the agreements are signed, the peace process continues. In life beyond the battlefields.
Seeing your enemy’s pain can ease your own pain. And watch for war crimes being punished and war criminals being punished. Without justice there can be no lasting peace. History and science show the same.
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