In the state elections in the northern German state of Schleswig-Holstein, early predictions show a clear victory for the ruling Christian Democrats. According to television stations ARD and ZDF, the CDU of popular Prime Minister Daniel Gunther accounts for 41 to 43 percent (2017: 32.0 percent). Previously the co-ruling Greens saw an improvement of 17.0 to 19.5 percent (2017: 12.9 percent).
At the federal level, Germany’s ruling opposition Social Democrats fell between 15.5 and 16 percent (2017: 27.3 percent). This is the worst result of the SPD so far in this state. The SPD last presented the Prime Minister from 2012 to 2017.
AFD can fly out
The ruling FDP (Liberals) performed significantly weaker than it was five years ago, gaining 7.0 percent (2017: 11.5 percent). The right-wing populist AfD will no longer represent 4.5 to 4.9 percent (2017: 5.9 percent) in the key parliament. This is the first time the party, which was formed in 2013 and is currently represented in all state parliaments, has been expelled from the state parliament.
The South Schleswig Voters’ Association (SSW), a Danish minority party, won 6.0 percent (2017: 3.3 percent). He will be exempted from the five per cent ban on entering the state parliament.
According to the ARD, the projections will allocate the following seats in the state parliament: CDU 34 seats, Greens 13, SPD 12, FDP 5, SSW 5. Gunder will lose only an absolute majority.
SPD without principal bonus
According to opinion polls, the CDU was able to benefit from Gunther’s popularity above all else. The 48-year-old is one of the most popular prime ministers in the country. According to the ART, 74 percent of those surveyed said he represents the country’s interests well. The Greens also benefited from the popularity of Robert Hebeck, the Union Minister of Economy and Vice Chancellor from Shelswick-Holstein.
Together with Thomas Lasso-Mல்லller, the SPD sent a largely unknown top candidate to compete in the Shellswick-Holstein. President Olaf Scholes’ party failed to receive a “chancellor bonus”.
The most important elections in the coming weeks
Günther had said before the election that he wanted to continue the “Jamaica” alliance with the Greens and the FDP. Given the strength of the CDU, he would only need one coalition partner. The FDP is ideologically closer to the CDU than the environmental party.
The election in the relatively small federal state of 2.9 million people is the second of four state elections in Germany this year. Elections will be held next Sunday in the most populous state of North Rhine-Westphalia and in Lower Saxony in October. In March, the SPD won a landslide victory in state elections in Charland, ending decades of CDU rule.
Predictions indicate support for Friedrich Merz, the new German CDU leader. He assumed leadership of the party in late January and chairman of the CDU / CSU parliamentary committee in mid-February. The Christian Democrats hope that a strong performance in the North will set the stage for elections in North Rhine-Westphalia within a week. There too the CDU is the head of government. However, in opinion polls it is slightly ahead of SPD. The previous CDU-FDP coalition did not have a majority in Düsseldorf.
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