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Ukraine is doing well in the fight against Russia – here at the front in Bagmut.
Ciara SchlenzNews editor
“This should be an important year,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (44) said earlier in the week, summarizing his expectations for 2023. But what will the new year bring for the two warring parties? An overview.
David vs Goliath – this is the idea of the war in Ukraine. At least, this has become true: “little” Ukraine stands firm in the face of big Russia. Some experts believe that Ukraine has a clear upper hand on the battlefield.
The situation around the city of Pakmut is representative of Ukraine’s determination – Russian troops have been gritting their teeth on the front line for weeks, and the Ukrainians have successfully defended it.
However, Putin’s troops adopted a more insidious tactic and targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure – bombing the country in the cold and darkness. But even as Ukraine is backed with arms by the West, Russia’s stake is steadily diminishing — another advantage for Ukrainians.
Ukraine’s war aims
A lot is at stake for the attacked country. No wonder Zelensky’s government wanted to end the war as quickly as possible – with victory over the aggressor. As the war drags on for a long time, unfavorable situations such as a stalemate or a partial victory for Russia are likely to occur.
Ukraine demands that Russia withdraw from occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea. But how does she intend to bring Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin’s (70) army to its knees?
With Western weapons, the Ukrainian government has repeatedly insisted. “There is every reason to believe that Ukraine will complete the task of defeating Russia in the new year if the international community provides sufficient military equipment,” Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov (56) said.
Russia’s war aims
While Ukraine wants a quick end to the armed conflict, Putin is gambling on the opposite: a possible protracted war. The Kremlin hopes that the Ukrainian armed forces and morale will erode on the one hand, and the West on the other.
The Kremlin’s leader knows that the more remote a Ukrainian victory seems, the faster Western support for the country will decline and the pressure will increase on Kyiv to negotiate with the dictator — a very favorable situation for Russia, because it trusts the Ukrainians. There are offers.
Although the Russian government has repeatedly changed its campaign: ultimately, the Russian ruler wants to overthrow the Ukrainian government, seize large parts of the country and disband the Ukrainian armed forces. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (72) recently confirmed this to TASS news agency.
Biggest attack in spring
die “NZZ” On Christmas Eve, the German Foreign Ministry issued a statement outlining two scenarios for the continuation of the war. First, Russia will focus on conquering Donbass, and second, they want to conquer all of Ukraine.
Both have in common that Russia will launch another major offensive with the support of Belarus. Institute for War Studies (ISW) announced recently. The timing of this attack is not yet known, but experts expect an attack in the latest spring.
Chances of success are also uncertain. But one thing is certain: “For 2023, the outcome of the Russian spring offensive will be the decisive factor. Putin acknowledged that some 50,000 of the newly mobilized troops were already on the front lines; Another 250,000 of those mobilized now are in training for next year,” security expert Michael Clarke analyzed. BBC.
Zelensky presented a ten-point peace plan during his visit to the United States. But negotiations are not realistic at present. Military expert Marcel Berney (34) analyzed the conversation with Blick: “I don’t see the possibility of a cease-fire or peace negotiations at the moment.” Both sides are currently seeking military gains in the region, making the war “not yet ripe for negotiation”.
“What is there to negotiate? About Russia’s withdrawal from Ukraine? Or about Ukrainian capitulation?” Bernie asks himself. Both are currently unreal due to claims by military forces and warring parties. The Russian side is also not very keen on the proposals. Both Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov (54) and Foreign Minister Lavrov have insisted that the conditions for such a plan have not been met.
There is no end in sight
Claudia Major, a security expert at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), said in an interview «Editorial Network Germany»There comes a point when both sides agree to end the conflict. “But the political conflict is still not resolved. It’s about Ukraine’s future, Russia’s future, borders and war reparations, tackling war crimes, security guarantees for Ukraine. So political conflicts are getting bigger day by day and difficult to resolve.
Even Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg (53) doesn’t expect the war to end anytime soon, as he says otherwise. “Pulse24” explained. “Unfortunately, war will be with us for a long time until 2023.”
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