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What would happen if Vladimir Putin was no longer in office?
Vladimir Putin (70) has been president for 23 years. Above a Russia without him? It is difficult for many to imagine – yet completely unthinkable. Ulrich Schmid (56), a Russia expert at the University of St. Gallen, told Blick in September that the Kremlin was looking for a “soft exit situation” for Putin. Not only that: “Putin will no longer run in the 2024 elections.”
as “attention” Now writing, that possibility is becoming more and more real. More decision makers and wealth owners are losing faith in their longtime president as many realize that Putin has failed. Prediction: From a political perspective, Russia has experienced very turbulent times since the fall of the Soviet Union.
Russian expert Ulrich Schmidt: Putin cannot run for president in 2024(09:56)
Who is the longest-serving leader of the Kremlin?
Russian political scientist Kirill Rokov said, “In 23 years of rule, Putin has never found himself in such a situation. The current head of the Kremlin has always been a “strong leader” – no matter what crisis he’s faced with. But the war against Ukraine, which began on February 24, has made Putin unacceptable to Russia’s political elite — at least since the annexation of four Ukrainian regions: Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Cherson.
Political consultant Tatyana Stanovaya explains in “Focus”: “Until September, Russian elites decided to support Putin for practical reasons. But now events have progressed so far that they can only choose between different loss scenarios.” If the war is defeated, the regime may fall.
According to Abbas Kalyamov, a political expert who has spent some time in Russia, the first attempts to remove Putin from the throne will come in the next few months. Additionally, the search for potential successors within the organization will be intensified, the portal said. Kalzamov’s list of possible candidates includes the son of Defense Secretary Nikolai Patrushev (71) and Dmitry Patrushev (45). Or Kremlin Deputy Chairman Sergey Kriyenko (60), Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin (64) or Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin (56).
Navalny sees black for Russia
The latter in particular is believed to be able to act as a moderate negotiator in the West, Kalyanov says. But jailed Kremlin critic and activist Alexei Navalny, 46, immediately shot down this belief in an op-ed in the Washington Post. The belief that “Putin’s successor will be replaced by another member of his elite will fundamentally change this approach to war, especially this approach to war on the legacy of the Soviet Union,” is too naïve.
For Navalny, decentralization and turning Russia into a parliamentary republic is the only way out of the “eternal circle of imperial nationalism.” He elaborates: “It gives them the opportunity to exert influence and fight for power, while ensuring that their position is not threatened by a more aggressive group.” (chs)
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