During the Ukrainian offensive in the fall, the Russian army completely withdrew from the regional capital Cherson and from parts of the region on the west bank of the Dnipro. The aim was to prevent Ukrainian troops from advancing across the river.
The new development could mean a loss of control by Russian units in the region. Accordingly, the Russian invaders could only concentrate on the cities.
Citing Russian bloggers who repeatedly criticize their own military, ISW experts are already seeing solid supply lines to the positions of the Ukrainian armed forces.
Ukraine has always announced the liberation of all territories occupied by Russian troops. If the region is captured from the Cherson region, the path will be clear for the Ukrainian military to the Russian-annexed Black Sea peninsula of Crimea.
ISW experts believe that the Russian military will not make recommendations to Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin to focus on defensive positions. Instead of focusing on massing forces in the wake of a planned large-scale Ukrainian offensive, it said the attacks have been frequent, resulting in little to no losses and no territorial gains.
“Continued insistence on Russian attacks in eastern Ukraine suggests that the group trying to freeze the war on the current frontline does not fully trust Putin.”That said in the analysis.
ISW experts suspect that this is one of the reasons why the Ministry of Defense in Moscow is using Wagner, the head of the Russian private army, to get to Putin. Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is considered Putin’s closest confidant — and outspoken. (sda/dpa)
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