July 24, 2024

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Parliamentary elections France: Macron warns of civil war


New electionsLucky election in France: Macron warns of civil war

France will elect a new parliament on Sunday and it will be a lucky day for Emmanuel Macron. The right-wing populist Rassemblement National is leading in the polls. We introduce the most important parties and tell them what they want to achieve.

Valeria Mazzeo
  • Parliamentary elections will be held in France on June 30 and July 7.

  • Right-wing populist Rassemblement National is currently leading the polls.

  • President Macron has warned of social division and civil war, criticizing populist parties.

  • If Macron’s party fails, the president and prime minister come from different political camps and coexistence is possible.

General elections in France are held on June 30 and July 7. After the victory of right-wing nationalists and the crushing defeat of his liberal party in the European elections, President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly and announced new elections.

This is what the poll numbers look like

According to Ifop, the right-wing populist “Rassemblement National” (RN) is currently in first place with 36 percent of the vote, followed by the left-green coalition “Nouveau Front populaire” (NFP) with almost 30 percent. Behind him is Macron’s Liberal Party coalition with 20 percent. The high willingness to vote among the French population is notable: pollsters predict 62 percent, down from 15 percent two years ago. 20 minutes introduces the most important parties and coalitions and their goals.

Federation of Nations: Less Migration, Less EU

Right-wing parties have split before the election, but Rassemblement National is now clearly in the lead. Party leader Jordan Bartella wants to score points in the election with these arguments:

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  • Immigration in France is made more difficult by formal deportations and more difficult conditions for family reunification.

  • Strict restrictions should be imposed on education policy, including a cell phone ban until the end of high school.

  • No person holding a passport other than a French passport should be allowed to work in the public sector. Bartella has now weakened this point again.

  • France’s contribution to the European Union is to be reduced.

  • Aid to Ukraine in war against Russia will be maintained.

Left coalition “New Popular Front”: lower retirement age, higher minimum wage, new taxes

In response to Macron’s announcement, a total of 20 left-green parties formed the NFP electoral coalition within days, agreeing on a common electoral program. These are his goals:

  • Macron’s controversial pension reform is set to be overhauled. With this, it is planned to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64.

  • A ten percent increase in the minimum wage to a net 1,600 euros per month and more financial relief for tenants.

  • New staff in the teaching and health sectors and renovation of buildings and investments in renewable energies.

  • The measures were to be financed by new taxes: a tax on corporate profits and the reintroduction of a wealth tax on the wealthy.

It is not yet clear who will be nominated as prime minister if he wins the election.

Macron’s government camp “group”: increased bonuses, pension adjustments, reduction of electricity bills

Macron’s government suffered a clear defeat in the European elections. He wants to balance this in the new elections with the following points:

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  • The tax-free “Macron” bonus will increase to 10,000 euros per year. It is a discretionary bonus payment for the employee and without additional social security contributions for the employer.

  • Pension Adjustment for Inflation: Pensions are adjusted according to the rising cost of living.

  • Electricity charges will be reduced by 15 percent from next winter.

  • Introduction of complementary public health care for one euro per day to support people without private health insurance.

  • Tax exemption on inheritance up to specified amounts.

Macron warns of civil war and social division

Macron warns that society will be divided by right-wing and left-wing populist parties. In a podcast he warned of civil war. Bartella criticized Macron’s statements. “The head of the republic should not say anything like that,” he told broadcaster M6. Meanwhile, Bardella has set his sights on the premiership. His party is “ready” to seize power and he wants to “restore security to all French people”.

If Macron’s party loses?

If a party other than Macron wins a majority – such as the RN or the left-wing coalition NFP – a so-called “coalition” is formed. The president must choose a prime minister from the winning party, who in turn chooses his ministers.

It is not clear how the political situation will develop if no party gets an absolute majority in Parliament. In such a scenario, Macron could try to build a new governing majority by drawing on the support of various political sectors on the center-left and right. Alternatively, he could form an expert cabinet similar to Italy’s. If none of these strategies work, there is also the possibility of Macron resigning, leading to early presidential elections.

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