Heat and storms: Dormouse’s day foreshadows summer

Dormouse Day serves as a forecast for summer weather for the next seven weeks. Thursday, June 27, mostly humid, unsettled and thundery. Why dormouse is wrong as a measure of summer weather and what is the forecast from that date.

Dormouse takes place very quickly

But be careful, using the dormouse as a gauge of the weather in the coming weeks is inaccurate in many ways. Because it’s not just about rain and sun, it’s about the overall weather conditions across Europe. The date is incorrect because the Gregorian calendar reform of 1582 resulted in a delay of about eleven days. So the actual dormouse day isn’t until Monday 8th July. So looking at 27th June as a reflection of summer called ‘Lostock’ is completely nonsense. To predict summer weather, it is better to use a slightly longer period of a couple of weeks from late June to early July, and not just rely on the day of the lounge.

Confirmation of general weather conditions in late June and early July

Superstition or not: Meteorologists actually see a stabilization of the general weather conditions at this time, which usually lasts for a long time. This is due to the special nature of the Earth’s atmosphere. At an altitude of about ten kilometers, so-called jet streams zigzag around the Earth. They influence the trajectories of high and low pressure areas and are therefore largely responsible for weather development.

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During the period from late June to early July, the direction of the jet stream remains relatively constant and the weather conditions are correspondingly stable. Whether it will be sunny or rainy will ultimately depend on whether the wind blows south or north across Europe. If the jet stream runs south, there will be high low pressure and uneven weather, while a northerly direction means high pressure and sunshine.

The weather that prevailed on June 27 and early July will mostly stay with us for the following seven weeks, ie until the end of August.

Where did the name dormouse come from?

Contrary to popular belief, the rodent of the same name has nothing to do with the farmer’s rule. Dormouse Day owes its name to an old legend. According to this, seven Christian youths are said to have fallen into a deep sleep after being walled up alive in a cave during the persecution of Christians. About 200 years later, they were accidentally discovered, awakened and testified to the belief in the resurrection of the dead, but died shortly after. June 27 is dedicated to the Seven Sleepers as a memorial day in the Catholic calendar of saints.

What weather can we expect this summer?

Given the previously unsettled, wet and thundery weather and expected cooler and changeable days, the following dormouse forecast arises: As a result of climate change, summers will generally be very hot and very dry, but with warm change and wet thunderstorms, despite unsettled cold and heavy rainfall. , the summer of 2024 should not be too hot or too dry, which makes plants and many people happy. We’ll see if this actually happens at the end of August.

Reviews of summer climates since 1997

According to Meteo Switzerland, the dormouse success rate in our region is around 60 to 70 percent, which is also evident in the High Rhine weather. Since the summer of 1997, Dormouse’s rule has correctly predicted summer weather 19 times. However, the fate was not perfect in eight years, i.e. 1997, 2006, 2016 and 2020, where summers were hotter and drier than predicted. In four other years, 2000, 2001, 2004 and 2014, the weather was worse than Dormouse Day.