Corona mutation threatens world economy – If Omigran paralyzes China, everyone has a problem

In Xian, China, 13 million people are currently homeless. On Sunday, authorities were asked to close all windows and doors as they disinfected the entire city in a large-scale operation. While clouds of chemicals were moving through the streets, some people quietly wondered how effective this measure would be.

China is one of the few countries in the world Adheres to the zero-govt strategy. If officers find cases somewhere, they round up the affected areas. All stores in Yanan, about 300 kilometers from Xi’an, were closed Tuesday. Millions of people are isolated in one district. However, with the highly contagious Omicron variant, this principle is becoming increasingly difficult to adhere to.

Experts now fear that a possible omigran wave in China could have an impact on the world economy. So the German warned In an interview with virologist Christian Troston “SonntagsZeitung”: தடு The vaccine used in China has poor efficacy against Omigran. This is the real threat to the world economy. “

Chinese scientists have developed two vaccines of their own: Coronavac (manufacturer Sinovak) and PPIPP-Corvi (manufacturer Synoform). They are not used in Europe, but coronavac is the most widely used vaccine worldwide. However, new studies now show that even after a booster vaccine, Omigron offers poor protection against variability. Both Chinese vaccines work with inactivated viruses and do not induce strong immunity like the vaccines based on the MRNA system (Pfizer, Modern).

Distribution problems will worsen drastically

For months we realized in Switzerland how the epidemic was shaking the flow of global goods. Electronics, furniture, cars and other consumer goods are sometimes in short supply. Will Omigran’s situation worsen in China? “I see significant risks to international supply chains at the moment,” says David Dorn, professor of globalization and labor markets at the University of Zurich.

Swiss companies are not yet aware of the potential turmoil at this time. “Ports in China are operating normally,” said Kuhn + Nagal, a spokesman for the transport logistics company. Nestl மேலும் adds: “Our production in China is running smoothly. There is currently no problem with the supply chain. An ABB spokesman explains that the new measures in China do not currently have a significant impact on business operations. However, since Omigran spreads so quickly, it can change quickly.

“Companies have tried to find alternatives and are still working equally well. But it will not happen overnight.”

Rudolf Minch, Chief Economist of the Economy

“If there is a big explosion in China or China tries to fight this explosion with large-scale restrictions, the supply problems of the last few months will only get worse,” says Dorn. If the Chinese government is forced to encircle certain regions, it will always have consequences for the productivity and transport chains of the companies there.

According to Rudolf Minsch, chief economist at Economiesuisse, the Omikron explosion in China could be felt by Swiss consumers as well. This is because the raw materials for many supplier parts or products come from China. “Companies have tried to find alternatives, but they are still working equally well, but that will not happen overnight,” he said. Powerless against large locks.

In this case, problems are expected – from chips to aluminum, from chemicals to raw materials. Minsh did not immediately fear such a situation: “Many companies have significantly increased their holdings and made arrangements for Christmas. But with prolonged interruptions, the situation will only get worse, ”said Minch.

The Olympics can make the situation worse

“China will have big problems with Omigron and its zero-govt policy,” wrote Tulio de Oliveira, a South African archaeologist. On Twitter three days ago. De Oliveira and his team were the first to draw the WHO’s attention to the Omigron variant.

The question is how long and how severely Omigran will strike China. “If China is forced into big and continuous locks, it will have a huge impact on the Swiss export economy,” says Dorn. Even if the government in Beijing abandons the zero-govt strategy, the number of cases may rise that require re-locks to keep the health system from collapsing. Due to the long-term one-child policy, populations over the age of 65 in China are also at higher risk of developing severe goiter.

After all, Novartis does not expect any shortages in drug supply. “We do not expect any material effects on our production,” says a spokesman. “On the one hand, our supply chains are well diversified.

In addition, in six weeks Olympic Games in China Are taking place, and many from all over the world are flocking to China. “Running the Olympics in this situation is a huge challenge,” says Dorn.

Posted at 4:12 pm today

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