Could the right-wing coalition around Salvini and Berlusconi pose a threat to election winner Meloni? An expert classifies.
How dangerous are Lega boss Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi from Forza Italia to election winner Giorgia Meloni? “Both have the potential to be destructive, albeit for different reasons,” says Giovanni Orsina of the prestigious Louis University in Rome. Salvini must fear a claim to leadership in the Lega, so Meloni will try to distinguish himself in the government, which means causing difficulties.
Lega wants to go back to basics
In his home country he lost by a landslide to Fratelli. It is not for nothing that Umberto Bossi, the founder and foster father of Lega Nord, established a “Comitato del Nord”. A group going back to the party’s roots that could grow into a rebellion against Salvini.
“You can only judge in five to six months whether there will be an upswing,” Orsina believes. First you have to wait to form the government: how much can Salvini leave for Lega? Then the opposition will have to organize itself into a more hierarchical Lega to suit Salvini, and then come elections in the spring of 2023 in his home state of Lombardy. “Only then will it be clear whether Salvini will be brought down or not.”
Purana:
Appearances can be deceiving: Meloni and Salvini may have differences of opinion.
Keystone / GIUSEPPE LAMI
The “Comitato del Nord” is a challenge for Salvini because he created Lega Nord, which first advocated secession and then autonomy for northern Italy, as an all-Italian Lega party modeled after Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National in France. However, according to Orsina, the concept has lost its appeal in northern Italy.
“Salvini needs to distinguish himself in government. But his voters, especially entrepreneurs, want a stable government.
Meloni’s second government partner, Silvio Berlusconi, poses a threat to the government’s stability because his Forza Italia is essentially a one-man party. Berlusconi was old and infirm; How long he can hold the reins of the party in his hands is uncertain: “And without Berlusconi, Forza Italia will be unstable and likely to break up.”
A bad omen for a stable government, one might think. Yes, says Orsina, but there are more important reasons to speak against it. A Maloney government will last even five years, a full legislature, he hopes. “Salvini needs to distinguish himself in government. But his voters, especially entrepreneurs, want a stable government,” says Orsini. If Salvini overthrows Meloni’s government, who does Salvini want to ally with? What is the future of a Salvini who shrunk in half and leaves power?
What is Italy’s policy?
The September 25 election is decided very differently in Europe and in Italy. Europe cares, Italy doesn’t. Who is right? “Italy is right,” says Orsina. Because, like Giorgia Meloni, anyone who follows the principle of “Italy first” can make no other policy than Tragi.
On the war in Ukraine and towards the EU, which has paid only 40 billion euros out of some 200 billion from the exceptionally generous corona aid fund for Italy, the Meloni government will not take a fundamentally different position than Draghi.
In these days of political uncertainty in Italy, one thing is certain for Orsina: “Matteo Salvini will not be interior minister”. He will also not be given the Union Ministry of Home or Foreign Policy.
“Wannabe pop culture fanatic. Zombie advocate. Entrepreneur. Internet evangelist. Alcohol fanatic. Typical travel buff.”
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