“It’s Russia’s Spring Offensive – That’s All”
Military experts have repeatedly warned of a major Russian offensive in the spring of 2023. According to a top NATO official, this is already happening – the Russians lack the will, the soldiers and the material for a major breakthrough.
This picture of a kilometer-long Russian convoy in front of Kiev went around the world at the beginning of the conflict. Initially, Kremlin troops were able to capture most of the Ukrainian territory.
But progress soon stalled. After that, Russian troops managed to gain only isolated territory, in many places they were pushed back by successful Ukrainian counterattacks.
In early 2023, military experts and the Ukrainian government warned of a new major Russian offensive. Pictured is a destroyed Russian tank at an exhibition.
According to a NATO official, this is already happening and will not increase in intensity. Image of BM-21 multiple rocket launcher firing at Ukrainian targets.
In the case of individual Russian weapons systems, such as the Iskander missile, stocks are increasingly depleted, and production lags behind.
In addition, the Kremlin was probably reluctant to use the Luftwaffe on a large-scale offensive because of previous high losses. Pictured is a shot down SU-35S in April 2022.
One reason for the high number of Russian jets shot down may be the rapid deployment of portable surface-to-air missile systems from the West.
Conventional weapon systems such as the German-supplied Gepard anti-aircraft tanks have already proven themselves. This video screenshot shows a Russian missile being shot down by Cheetah’s anti-aircraft guns. According to military experts, combining old anti-aircraft guns with modern fire control equipment will be an important strategy to deal with Russian drone attacks.
At the beginning of the year, the Ukrainian government and many experts warned of a major Russian attack in the spring.
According to a NATO official, the offensive is already underway – on a much smaller scale than the West feared.
This was due to shortage of material, personnel and ammunition.
According to Ukraine, Russia launched a new offensive in the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in early February. “An expansion is underway and the main goal is up Take Donbass at the end of March», said Andriy Yusov of Ukrainian military intelligence at the time.
Many military experts also weighed in With a massive onslaught at the start of the year of Russian troops. So far, this has not happened – and according to NATO’s top official, it will not happen again, he says in an interview with “BUILD”.
So far no progress has been made in the direction of Kiev
«This is the Russian Spring Offensive. She is like that. That’s it,” says the unnamed expert, adding that the fighting is already raging, especially in the Donbass. Indeed, military experts and the Ukrainian government reckoned that large Russian troops could advance in the direction of Kiev and Kharkiv.
According to a senior NATO official, there are several reasons for the failure or the greatly reduced scale of the spring offensive. There is still a reluctance to send Russian soldiers to Ukraine on a large scale, while Putin increasingly prefers to rely on their influence rather than the mercenaries of Prigozhin’s Wagner group.
“Russian weapons systems are inferior”
In addition, the Kremlin was forced to realize that many of those who were stationed in the war Russian weapons systems to counterparts supplied by Western countries hopelessly inferior. But there is also a shortage of ammunition – in the past, Yevgeny Prigozhin has repeatedly complained that his Wagner fighters no longer have access to artillery shells and other projectiles.
The thought of deploying the Russian air force, which is vital to an effective advance, could cause headaches for strategists in the Kremlin. Since the beginning of the war, Russian pilots have not had a good record – many of the electronic components needed to build new jets are not available in Russia due to Western sanctions, and the Kremlin is losing dozens of planes.
Russia has never been able to defend air sovereignty
According to OSINT platform Oryxspioenkop.com, despite numerical superiority and modern aircraft, Russia has already lost 79 aircraft, while the Ukrainian Air Force has lost a total of 61 aircraft. Also, the Kremlin has not succeeded in gaining air supremacy.
NATO official sums up the war in a nutshell Motto “Quantity and Quality” Together. While Russia is fighting large numbers with poorly trained and expendable personnel, unguided artillery ammunition and inaccurate rockets, Ukraine is fighting with few, but well-trained soldiers and Western precision weapons.
Another point is the very high losses on the Russian side. “In July of last year, that number was 173 per day, and in February of this year, 824 Russian soldiers and mercenaries were killed or wounded per day.” And with them Losses on the Russian side are “many times higher” than the Ukrainians.
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