What if Marine Le Pen wins big?
France elects new parliament in feverish atmosphere What are the possible scenarios? Most important questions and answers.
Everything is very confusing: France is voting – no one knows what the future of its institutions will be.
Photo: Ocean Goes (AFP)
France has already experienced several important and decisive elections. Dramatic too. A favorite one Parliamentary elections on June 30 and July 7 The French mostly agree that it already belongs to the “historical” category. Historical in many respects. Sure, but first and foremost, the far right can – and probably will – win these elections because of the odds. Question: How tall?
Why is France voting now, three years ahead of schedule?
The French want to know it too. Its leader, Emmanuel Macron, appeared on television at 8:58 p.m. on June 9, after his defeat in the European elections, and said that he did not want to simply accept history, but to actively write it. Why he dissolved the Assemblée National, he surprised everyone – everyone, indeed, including right-wing extremists. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally. After its strong victory (31.4 percent of the vote), the party immediately called for new elections. But she always did it after winning every election – with the conviction that it wouldn’t happen anyway. Additionally: European elections in France are mostly opposition elections against the current president, a kind of midterm elections. Its domestic political significance? Rather less. So there is no need to call for parliamentary elections. Macron, according to the common explanation for this mysterious coup, wanted to surprise everyone with a snap election.
How many times has a French president dissolved parliament?
Five times before Macron in the Fifth Republic, since 1958. Twice by Charles de Gaulle (1962 and 1968), twice by François Mitterrand (1981 and 1988), once by Jacques Chirac (1997). All cite Article 12 of the Constitution, each with different political objectives. But no president before Macron had dissolved parliament immediately after a failed election.
Or does he know the way? French President Emmanuel Macron in the Élysée courtyard.
Photo: Andre Payne (AP)
How do the polls look ahead of the first round of voting – is Macron’s plan working?
The Lebanese are ahead: about 35 percent. Then comes the United Left of the “Nouveau Front Populaire” at 29 percent. Macron’s centrist “Ensemble” camp is estimated at around 20 percent. So with a majority of the 577 French constituencies, each of which sends one representative to the Assemblée Nationale, the second round of voting is expected to be a battle between a far-right and a left-wing candidate. There are occasional “triangle elections”, i.e. three-way elections – if the third-place candidate receives at least 12.5 percent of the votes of all eligible voters registered in the constituency concerned. As expected, this may happen more often than previous elections due to high turnout. No matter how you spin it, the Macronists will lose their majority in parliament. The president did not believe it was possible for the divided Left to unite in such a short period of time. He thought his people would face the Lebanese in a majority run-off election.
What is the probability that the far right gets an absolute majority, i.e. at least 289 seats?
That is the central question. In elections based on the majority system, predictions are complicated. They mostly depend on the behavior of the parties that lost the first round of voting or came third. In the past, the “Republican Front” rose against the National Front, as the party was once called. Moderate parties withdrew their third-place candidates from the race to avoid dispersing votes against the far-right. Or they openly called for moderate candidates to be elected from each other’s camps: Gaullists for Socialists, for example, and vice versa. This is not automatic today, the “republican front” has eroded – especially on the right of center.
What do the Macronists have planned for the second round?
There is a great temptation to use the slogan “Neither-nor”. But that would help the far right, only if it could count on a larger, more committed electorate.
Smile of the expected winner: 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, who should become prime minister if his party wins an absolute majority in parliament.
Photo: Dimitar Tilkoff (AP)
What would happen if the Lebenists actually had an absolute majority in the Assemblée Nationale?
That would be historic: they had 89 seats in the now-dissolved National Assembly, more than ever since the party was founded in 1972. Macron, who theoretically has a free hand in appointing the head of government, will then appoint the young president. Jordan Bartella of the Rassemblement National should become prime minister. That is what his party wants. Only in the case of an absolute majority, as Bartella keeps repeating: only if he can act from a position of strength. This is the fourth time in the Fifth Republic that France’s executive government has ruled in “collaboration,” that is, with a president and a prime minister of different stripes. Only: This time the political colors are different than ever, and the potential for conflict is huge.
What does it mean for French foreign and security policy if the far right is in power?
In France, foreign policy and defense are said to be “domaine presidential”, an exclusive area of the president’s competence. But the constitution is not so clear. According to Article 15, the President is the “Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces”, i.e. the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. But according to Article 21, paragraph 1, the “responsibility of national security” falls under the power of the Prime Minister. Or to put it another way: the Prime Minister decides the budget. Marine Le Pen puts it this way: “‘Chef des Armies’ is an honorary title, the prime minister holds the purse strings.” A caricature. So what happens to arms exports to Ukraine? Bartella said France would keep its promises even as prime minister: however, he would not allow troops to be sent to Ukraine. Rassemblement National has always been close to Russopil and Putin. It received large loans from Moscow. In the referendum on sanctions against Russia, the party mostly abstained or voted against. Now he is showing solidarity with Ukraine.
They were not always equally compatible, but they often moved together: Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin and Gaullist President Jacques Chirac in 2000 – they ruled together for five years.
Photo: PD
What does a far-right government in Paris mean for the EU?
A test of endurance. It was only a few years ago that Marine Le Pen called for “Frexit” or at least for France to leave the Euro. Recently, people want to change the EU from within, renegotiate the treaties, stop free trade agreements if possible and remove the rules on agriculture. Of course, the Lebanese know that major changes in the EU can only be decided unanimously – all 27 states together. But slogans are important for campaigning. It will be interesting to see if France will sit at the table with two people at future European summits, i.e. if Macron will take Bardella with him, if the “collaboration” does happen. There are no exact rules, just customs. Gaullist Jacques Chirac took Socialist Lionel Joseph with him because he wanted to. Their “collaboration” lasted five years from 1997 to 2002.
What if neither camp has an absolute majority—and no reasonably strong relative majority?
If the numbers allow, Macron could try to create a pole of moderate forces to the left and right of the center: a “Macronism 2.0”. However, it is questionable whether the Social Democrats and the Greens would embark on such an adventure if they won enough seats. Because Macron has slipped too far to the right for some time. Before the election, he attacked the left as hard as the far right. Perhaps, in such a parliamentary group, a non-partisan expert government would be the most plausible option. A full-fledged technical cabinet would be new political territory for France, something that has never happened before – unlike Italy. But maybe Macron really likes this option. His tenure will continue for another three years. Nothing formally forced him to give up his presidency earlier. And Macron continues to say he will stay until his mandate expires in May 2027.
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